Election Forecast for 2023

by Robert Bohannon, Hunton Andrews Kurth

This November’s election forecasts a serious fight for control for 2023’s Virginia General Assembly 
Over 40% of current VA legislators are facing another incumbent in 2023, here’s what we see so far for each district in Virginia. 
 
Midterm Election Impact on the Virginia General Assembly 
 
Results from the two competitive Northern Virginia congressional races show that Republicans have work to do if they want to be competitive in what are expected to be the battleground districts in 2023. US Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) won her election by four points, but won Prince William County easily, taking 68% of the vote. This is worth noting since her opponent, Republican Yesli Vega currently represents Prince William County on the Board of Supervisors. Vega won Spotsylvania County handily (54% to 46%), and narrowly won Stafford County by less than 500 votes but could not overcome the strong Democratic turnout in her own backyard.  
 
US Representative Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) won her race by a slightly wider margin (six points), performing exceedingly well in Loudoun County, where she took 57% of the vote. However, she lost the Prince William County portion of the district by less than 200 votes to Republican Hung Cao but performed well in Manassas and Manassas Park. This part of Prince William County, Manassas, and Manassas Park will be the backdrop of a key Senate race in 2023, where Delegate Danica Roem (D-Prince William) is running against Republican Ian Lovejoy, who served on the Manassas City Council, in an open seat. The data from the Wexton-Cao race shows this could be a competitive Senate election.    
 
A special election will be held before the 2023 session to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Kiggans. It is not a slam dunk that it will remain Republican.  
 
Republican Kevin Adams, a Navy veteran and small business owner, will face Democrat Aaron Rouse, who currently serves on the Virginia Beach City Council. Rouse is the more well-known candidate, as he has already been campaigning for the 22nd Senate District, which is where he resides – as does Adams – for the redrawn districts that will be on the November 2023 ballot. Rouse was also known as a standout football player at Virginia Tech, and he played in the NFL for the Green Bay Packers. He serves as an at-large member of the Virginia Beach City Council, meaning that he was elected citywide. His wife Jennifer won an election Tuesday to represent the 10th District on the Virginia Beach City Council. Rouse should be considered the favorite in this special election, which will have a short campaign window. Additionally, US Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA) lost Virginia Beach by a little more than 500 votes, outperforming expectations there.  
 
This special election will be important to both parties, as Democrats control the Senate 21-19. If Republicans lose this special election, they will enter the 2023 session with a bigger disadvantage, making it more difficult to advance Governor Youngkin’s legislative agenda.    
 
Looking Forward to 2023 
 
When Virginia’s Redistricting Commission failed to reach consensus in 2021 on constitutionally-mandated redrawing of new state and federal legislative districts, the Supreme Court of Virginia appointed two special masters – one appointed by Republicans, and one appointed by Democrats – to craft new districts that would not disadvantage either party. The result produced in December 2021 were new state legislative districts that in some cases placed two, or even three, incumbents into the same House or Senate district.  
 
Republicans and Democrats believe that control of the House of Delegates in the next election will come down to a handful of swing districts, which includes several currently open seats in Prince William and Stafford Counties. Incumbent Delegates Karen Greenhalgh (R-Virginia Beach) and Kim Taylor (R-Dinwiddie) will also both face competitive reelection races. Based on data from the 2021 gubernatorial election, Governor Youngkin won 52 of the new House districts.  
 
Control of the Senate will similarly come down to a few districts. Incumbent Senators Lynwood Lewis (D-Accomack), Monty Mason (D-Williamsburg), and Siobhan Dunnavant (R-Henrico) will all have the most challenging reelection races due to redrawn districts.  
 
While the situation remains fluid, with some incumbents still deciphering what is the best course of action for their political future, below is a breakdown of the districts where at least two incumbents currently reside, as well as additional detail about some of the issues that may determine how those contests play out before the June primaries.  
 
House of Delegates 
 
District 6 – Part of Fairfax County 
 
Delegates Rip Sullivan (D-Fairfax) and Kathleen Murphy (D-Fairfax) reside near each other in the McLean section of Fairfax County, and as such now have been placed into the same House district. It is widely believed that Delegate Murphy will not run again, leaving Delegate Sullivan as the incumbent in this strongly Democratic district.  
 
District 10 – Part of Fairfax County 
 
In this district, Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) loses part of Prince William County but retains the majority of his current district. He and Delegate David Bulova (D-Fairfax) have been drawn into the same district. With the majority of Delegate Bulova’s district residing in the newly drawn District 11 – which has no incumbent legislator – Bulova has already moved to run in the new district. These both remain strongly Democratic districts.  
 
District 13 – Part of Fairfax County; Falls Church City 
 
Delegate Marcus Simon (D-Fairfax) and Delegate Kaye Kory (D-Fairfax) have been drawn together in a district that favors Simon, due to the most overlap with his existing House district in the areas of Falls Church City, and the Merrifield and Idylwood portions of Fairfax County. However, Delegate Kory has survived numerous primary challenges since she successfully unseated Delegate Bob Hull (D-Fairfax) in 2009. There are also rumors that Delegate Kory may choose not to run for reelection.  
 
District 18 – Part of Fairfax County 
 
After being ousted by her caucus as Minority Leader, Delegate Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Fairfax) must now run in a primary against Delegate Kathy Tran (D-Fairfax). The new district favors Tran geographically, as it incorporates Springfield and southern portions of Fairfax County that are in her previous district. However, due to her tenure as Speaker of the House and House Minority Leader, Filler-Corn will have a distinct fundraising and name ID advantage over Tran.  
 
It is unknown how the recent House leadership fight will affect Filler-Corn. More progressive members of the House Democratic Caucus helped unseat her, but it is unclear if that will have any impact in Fairfax County, which she has represented in the House of Delegates for more than a decade. She has strong support there – so much so that the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors publicly expressed concern over her removal from her leadership position. 
 
While Delegate Tran was rumored to be considering a primary challenge to Senator Dave Marsden (D-Fairfax), it has now been confirmed that she will officially be running for reelection to the House of Delegates in a primary against Filler-Corn.  
 
District 24 – Part of Prince William County 

Delegate Elizabeth Guzman (D-Prince William) and Delegate Luke Torian (D-Prince William) were expected to have a hotly contested primary in this district, but it now appears likely that Delegate Guzman will decide to run for the Senate in a primary against Senator Jeremy McPike (D-Prince William) in 2023. In this House district, Delegate Guzman loses some of the more conservative parts of her previous district in Fauquier County that made it more competitive, and her close ties to organized labor have helped her raise sizeable amounts of money in recent campaigns.  

This Democratic district is racially diverse. Demographic data shows that it is 28% Hispanic and 25% Black.  

District 30 – Part of Loudoun County; Part of Fauquier County 

Delegate Dave LaRock (R-Loudoun) has been the lone Republican to survive the Democratic onslaught in Northern Virginia in recent years and has now been drawn into a district with fellow Republican Delegate Michael Webert (R-Fauquier).  

This district now has no incumbent legislator. Delegate Webert has filed to run in the 61st House District, and Delegate LaRock has joined a crowded Republican primary field in the solidly Republican 1st Senate District, which includes the City of Winchester, and Clarke, Frederick, Shenandoah, and Warren Counties.  

District 36 – Parts of Augusta and Rockbridge Counties; Staunton and Waynesboro  

This new district puts Delegate John Avoli (R-Staunton) and Delegate Ronnie Campbell (R-Rockbridge) together, and it remains strongly Republican.  

Delegate Avoli would have the advantage in this primary, as the cities of Staunton and Waynesboro are in his previous district, and they make up over 55% of this district. Delegate Campbell loses much of his previous district, including Bath and Amherst Counties, as well as Buena Vista and Lexington. Rockbridge County also comprises less than 11% of this new district. Before his service in the House of Delegates, Delegate Campbell served on the Rockbridge County Board of Supervisors. However, rumors are that Delegate Avoli will not run for reelection.  

District 37 – Botetourt, Allegheny, Craig, and part of Rockbridge County; Cities of Lexington, Buena Vista, and Covington 

This would have been a primary between Delegate Terry Austin (R-Botetourt) and Delegate Chris Head (R-Botetourt), but Delegate Head has opted to run for a newly created Senate seat without an incumbent. Delegate Austin is currently unopposed in this strongly Republican district.  
District 44 – Washington County, part of Russell County; and City of Bristol 

Delegate Israel O’Quinn (R-Washington) and his colleague Delegate Will Wampler (R-Washington) are now competitors in this new Southwest Virginia district. O’Quinn has served in the House of Delegates since 2012, and the new district comports with many areas he already represents. Rumors persist that Delegate Wampler may be seeking a job within the Youngkin administration.  

District 47 – Carroll, Patrick and Floyd Counties; part of Henry County; City of Galax 

Two freshman delegates – Delegate Marie March (R-Floyd) and Delegate Wren William (R-Patrick) – are pitted against each other in this new rural district. Delegate Williams will have a decided geographic advantage as he already represents Patrick and Henry Counties, which together make up 40% of the new district. Other than Floyd County – which only makes up 18% of the new district - Delegate March loses her entire existing district.  

Williams has also proven to be an aggressive and capable fundraiser in his first term, helping him unseat Delegate Charles Poindexter (R-Franklin) in 2021. Additionally, March has proven caustic at times, criticizing fellow Republicans for not being conservative enough.  

Williams has already begun attacking March, citing comments she made about too much government regulation over women’s bodies several years before the leak of the US Supreme Court’s decision related to Roe vs. Wade. He claims March’s comments identify her as pro-choice. March has fired back, defending her position as solidly pro-life. Both legislators co-sponsored anti-abortion legislation in 2022.  
At a September event in Wytheville, March filed criminal charges against Williams after she claims he pushed her when leaving the meeting. Williams contends he was leaving with his pregnant wife and accidentally ran into March, an act for which he apologized. Williams has also been publicizing accounts of others who witnessed the incident that corroborate his account.  

District 49 - City of Danville, parts of Pittsylvania and Halifax Counties 

Delegate Danny Marshall (R-Danville) should have an advantage in this new district, where he has been drawn in with Delegate James Edmunds (R-Halifax). The City of Danville, which he currently represents, makes up over 50% of the new district. Marshall also currently enjoys a significant cash on hand advantage, due to his influential positions on the House Commerce and Energy Committee and House Appropriations Committee. Delegate Edmunds loses Charlotte, Prince Edward, and Campbell Counties in this new district.  

District 52 – City of Lynchburg; Part of Campbell County 

Delegate Kathy Byron (R-Campbell) has represented this region since 1998 and serves as chairwoman of the powerful House Commerce and Energy Committee. It is expected that she will be the Republican candidate in this heavily Republican district and that Delegate Wendell Walker (R-Lynchburg) will move to the adjoining District 53, which does not have an incumbent delegate.  

District 60 – Parts of Hanover and New Kent Counties 

Delegate Buddy Fowler (R-Hanover) prevented a contentious battle for the Republican nomination in this district by moving to the adjacent 59th District, leaving Delegate Scott Wyatt (R-Hanover) as the Republican nominee in this strong Republican district.  

District 67 – King George, Westmoreland, Northumberland, Lancaster, and Richmond Counties; Part of Caroline County 

This largely Northern Neck district would have pitted two long-serving Republicans – Delegate Margaret Ransone (R-Westmoreland) and Delegate Bobby Orrock (R-Caroline) – against each other for the Republican nomination. Orrock has served in the House of Delegates for more than 30 years, but Caroline County is the only part of his former district included in the new one, and it only encompasses 11% of the new district. Delegate Ransone now has more than a decade of service in the House and has deep roots in this region. Orrock is planning to move to the new 66th District, which does not have a Republican incumbent.  

District 78 – Part of the City of Richmond 

This district is one of two where three sitting delegates – Delegates Jeff Bourne (D-Richmond City), Betsy Carr (D-Richmond City), and Dawn Adams (D-Richmond City) – were drawn together. It is unclear at this point who the favorite might be, and there are rumors that at least one candidate may be seeking another elected office.  

District 80 – Part of Henrico County 

Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Henrico) is thought to be the favorite in this new district where he was drawn in with Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg (D-Henrico). Bagby was reported to be considering a run for the 13th Senate District, but there are now two Democrats – Senator Joe Morrisey (D-Richmond City) and former Delegate Lashrecse Aird (D-Petersburg) - who have already announced their intentions to run there. VanValkenburg is also thought to be considering a potential Senate run against Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R-Henrico), as her district now leans more Democratic after losing Hanover County in the redistricting process.  

District 87 – Part of the City of Hampton 

In this new district, Delegate Jeion Ward (D-Hampton) was drawn in with freshman Delegate AC Cordoza (R-Hampton). Delegate Cordoza would be a huge underdog in this heavily Democratic district and has since opted to run in the nearby 86th District, which includes part of the City of Hampton, part of York County, and the City of Poquoson, and leans more Republican.  

District 88 – Part of the City of Portsmouth 

Delegate Don Scott (D-Portsmouth), who successfully toppled Delegate Eileen Filler-Corn (D-Fairfax) to become House Minority Leader, is the sole Democratic candidate in this district as Delegate Nadarius Clark (D-Portsmouth) has opted to move to a more rural, but competitive, district that includes Isle of Wight County, and the Cities of Franklin and Suffolk.  

District 90 – Part of the City of Chesapeake 

Delegate Cliff Hayes (D-Chesapeake) has avoided a challenging reelection campaign against Delegate Jay Leftwich (R-Chesapeake) by choosing to run in the 91st House District, which includes part of the City of Chesapeake and part of the City of Suffolk. Both Leftwich and Hayes are the only announced candidates in their respective districts.  

District 93 – Part of the City of Norfolk 

With Delegate Jackie Glass (D-Norfolk) and Delegate Angelia Williams Graves (D-Norfolk) being redistricted together, Delegate Williams Graves has announced her candidacy for the 21st Senate District in the City of Norfolk. There is a three-way Democratic primary for the Senate seat, which includes Norfolk City Councilwoman Andria McClellan.   

District 98 – Part of Virginia Beach 

This district includes three incumbent legislators – Delegates Kelly Convirs-Fowler (D-Virginia Beach), Glenn Davis (R-Virginia Beach), and Barry Knight (R-Virginia Beach). Delegate Convirs-Fowler indicated during the 2022 legislative session that she would not be seeking reelection in this solidly Republican district, but rumor is now she may run for a Senate seat. Both Davis and Knight have not given any indication they intend to move to another district, and both are considered strong candidates. Davis is a voracious campaigner who chairs the House Education Committee and Knight is arguably (one of) the most powerful member(s) of the House of Delegates, as he chairs the House Appropriations Committee.  
District 100 – Accomack and Northampton County; part of the City of Virginia Beach 

Delegate Rob Bloxom (R-Accomack) will have a geographic advantage in the Eastern Shore counties of Accomack and Northampton that make up 55% of this new district, due to his current representation of the region and long-standing ties to the local community. He also currently represents a small portion of Virginia Beach. Freshman Delegate Tim Anderson (R-Virginia Beach) will need to overcome that advantage in order to be viable in the Republican primary. Anderson does have substantial name ID due to his social media presence, which could help him be more competitive. He has also already started campaigning heavily on the Eastern Shore. This primary should be considered a toss-up.   
 
Senate 
 
In addition to the races profiled below, it’s worth noting that a number of members of the House of Delegates have already announced they will be running for the Senate in new, open districts. These members include Delegate Chris Head (R-Botetourt) in the 3rd District, Delegate John McGuire (R-Goochland) in the 22nd District, Delegate Emily Brewer (R-Isle of Wight) and Delegate Clinton Jenkins (D-Suffolk), who will run in the 17th District, freshman Delegate Tara Durant (R-Stafford) who will run in the Republican primary for the 27th District, and Delegate Danica Roem (D-Prince William) who announced she will run in the new 30th District. Former Delegates Lashrecse Aird (D-Petersburg), Cheryl Turpin (D-Virginia Beach), Hala Ayala (D-Prince William), and Jennifer Carroll Foy (D-Prince William) have all also announced their intention to run for the Senate in the next election, and Delegate Sally Hudson (D-Charlottesville) is widely believed to be considering a primary challenge to Senator Creigh Deeds (D-Bath).   

District 2 – Rockingham, Page, Bath, and Highland County; part of Augusta County; City of Harrisonburg 

This is one of two Senate districts with three incumbents drawn together. Senator Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) has decided to move to a new open, more Democratic-leaning Senate district centered around the City of Charlottesville, leaving Senator Emmett Hanger (R-Augusta) and Senator Mark Obenshain (R-Rockingham) to challenge each other for the Republican nomination in this Republican district. It has been rumored that Senator Hanger may move to the 3rd Senate District, but he will face Delegate Chris Head (R-Botetourt) if he chooses to do so.  

In either district, Hanger will face criticism in a Republican primary that he is not conservative enough. He was the key Republican negotiator that brokered the deal with Democrats to enact Medicaid expansion and was the only Republican to oppose Governor Youngkin’s gas tax moratorium.  

District 4 – City of Roanoke; City of Salem, and parts of Roanoke and Montgomery County 

This new district creates a race between Senator John Edwards (D-Roanoke City) and Senator David Suetterlein (R-Roanoke County). Head-to-head, Suetterlein has the advantage in this Republican-leaning district. Edwards will perform well in the City of Roanoke, which is 45% of the district, but Suetterlein will do well in the rest of the more rural parts of the district.  

District 8 – City of Lynchburg; Bedford and Campbell Counties 

Senator Steve Newman (R-Bedford), who has served in the Senate since 1996, has been rumored to be retiring for some time. If he decides not to retire, Senator Mark Peake (R-Lynchburg) will be the favorite in this solidly Republican district. If Newman decides to run again in 2023, Senator Peake is not expected to challenge him for the Republican nomination.  

District 12 – Part of Chesterfield County; City of Colonial Heights 

This new district now houses two of the most diametrically opposed senators – Senator Amanda Chase (R-Chesterfield) and Senator Ghazala Hashmi (D-Chesterfield). It now encompasses most of Senator Chase’s previous district, making it strongly Republican. As such, Senator Hashmi has opted to move and run in the newly created open 15th Senate District, which includes part of Chesterfield County and part of the City of Richmond and is much more ethnically diverse. 

Despite a strong Republican district, Senator Chase is not assured the nomination. Two other Republicans – Tina Ramirez and former Senator Glen Sturtevant (R-Richmond City) – have already announced they will challenge Chase for the Republican nomination. Given her often antagonistic relationship with the Senate Republican caucus, she will not receive much support from her colleagues, making this nomination battle very competitive. Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment (R-James City) has already hosted a fundraising event for Sturtevant.   

District 18 – Part of the City of Chesapeake; Part of the City of Portsmouth 

This will be the most contentious nomination fight for Senate Democrats. Senator Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) and Senator Lionell Spruill (D-Chesapeake) must now compete to represent this Democratic-leaning district. Both candidates have strong fundraising capabilities. Senator Lucas is looking to capitalize on her pushback against Governor Youngkin’s legislative agenda and has been appearing at events across the Commonwealth. Spruill has been working to raise money early knowing that this will be an expensive, hard-fought primary. It should be considered a toss-up.  

District 20 – Part of the Cities of Virginia Beach and Norfolk; Accomack and Northampton Counties 

This new district includes three incumbents, but with Senator Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) election to Congress, it now has two incumbents.  

Senator Bill DeSteph (R-Virginia Beach) and Senator Lynwood Lewis (D-Accomack) are also included in this district, which leans Republican. Senator Lewis hails from the Eastern Shore, which now makes up a little more than 20% of the district. He always performed well in the City of Norfolk, which helped propel him to victory. However, that is only 12% of the new district. Virginia Beach now makes up the lion’s share of this district (67%), which favors DeSteph. However, in the 2022 midterm election, US Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA) narrowly lost Virginia Beach by a little more than 500 votes, a closer margin than most expected.   

To complicate matters, a primary challenger has already filed to run against Senator Lewis.  

District 26 – Parts of James City, Hanover, and King and Queen Counties; Gloucester, New Kent, and Mathews Counties 

Like the 18th District, this new district pits two long-serving, powerful members of the Senate against each other. Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment (R-James City) and Senate Minority Caucus Chair Ryan McDougle (R-Hanover) now reside in the same district, which is solidly Republican. Other than Hanover County, which now makes up 32% of the district, McDougle loses nine other rural counties he currently represents – Caroline, Essex, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, Richmond, King George, Spotsylvania, and Westmoreland.  

Norment’s base in James City County makes up 35% of the new district, and he retains Gloucester, King and Queen, and New Kent Counties, which comprise roughly another 30% of the new district. McDougle has maintained that he does not intend to move in order to run for reelection, and there is not a contiguous district without a Republican incumbent.  

District 35 – Part of Fairfax County 

This would be an interesting matchup of incumbents, but Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw (D-Fairfax) has given every indication that he will not run again in the next election, having served in the Virginia Senate since 1980. Senator Dave Marsden (D-Fairfax) has already announced his intention to seek reelection for this seat. His biggest concern in deep blue Fairfax County will now be a primary challenge from the left.  

District 38 – Part of Fairfax County 

Similarly, this solidly Democratic district would match two incumbent Democrats against each other, but Senator Janet Howell (D-Fairfax) has indicated she does not plan to run again, leaving Senator Jennifer Boysko (D-Fairfax) as the incumbent for this new district that stretches from Herndon to McLean. Boysko too is concerned about a primary challenge from the left. Former Delegate Ibraheem Samirah (D-Fairfax) is already rumored to be considering a run against her in the Democratic primary.