Leading Construction Industry Economist Discusses Outlook for 2024

The leading economist for the cement, concrete and construction industries anticipates the U.S. economy will gradually weaken during the first half of 2024 but will likely slowly recover in the second half. Ed Sullivan, Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence, made that prediction and others for the industries earlier this month at the World of Concrete  trade show in Las Vegas.

Sullivan explained some of the determining factors for this year’s forecast include the end of the COVID-19 relief programs and the lagged impacts of monetary policy and credit tightening. He added that despite an expected economic slowdown, the chance of a recession this year is unlikely.

“In terms of the construction outlook, there will be a battle between interest sensitive construction sectors and less interest sensitive construction activity such as infrastructure spending and the construction of large manufacturing plants associated with the CHIPS act,” Sullivan said.

Also vital to the construction industry this year is business driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which represents $550 billion in new infrastructure spending. Unlike previous funding mechanisms for infrastructure like the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the entire IIJA package is dedicated to revamping infrastructure. Since it was signed into law in 2021, the Biden-Harris Administration says some 40,000 IIJA projects are underway or have been completed. The scope of funding is broad-based with spending on traditional infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, rail, water and sewer systems. There are also generous spending levels for things like resiliency projects and legacy pollutions, broadband internet and the energy grid.

For more information, contact Remi Braden at rbraden@cement.org or 202-235-4163.