April 2012 New Car Sales Anticipate Highest April SAAR Since 2007 According to TrueCar.com

Car-pricing site TrueCar.com released on April 25 its April 2012 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:

For April 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,195,809 units, up 3.4 percent from April 2011 and down 14.8 percent from March 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
The April 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.6 million new car sales, up from 13.2 million in April 2011 and up from 14.4 million in March 2012
Retail sales are up 6.7 percent compared to April 2011 and down 9.5 percent from March 2012
Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up eighteen percent of total industry sales in April 2012
The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,446 in April 2012, which represents a decrease of 4.7 percent from March 2012 and increase of 5.6 percent from April 2011
Used car sales* are estimated to be 3,615,148, down 2.0 percent from April 2011 but up 33.6. percent from March 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for April 2012

"The momentum built by the recovering economy and compelling product choices in the first quarter continued to fuel new vehicle sales in April, " said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com. "Consumer demand for the smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles remain strong while the SUV and truck categories are not seeing any dramatic drop in sales – thanks to the introduction of several new models that offer significantly better fuel economy."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for April 2012:

"Toyota has fully recovered from inventory shortages caused by last year's earthquake and tsunami and have recouped most of their lost market share in April," said Kristen Andersson, Senior Analyst at the site. "The automaker will post their highest market share since December 2010 led by sales of fuel efficient vehicles like the Camry, Prius, and Corolla."

The site bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales.

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