New Car Sales In 2011 Expected To Reach Nearly 12.8 Million Units, Highest Since 2008
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Car pricing forecaster TrueCar.com released its December 2011 sales and incentives forecast on December 27. The forecast shows the following:
- For December 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,236,911 units, up 8.1 percent from December 2010 and up 24.4 percent from November 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The December 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.5 million new car sales, down from 13.7 million in November 2011 and up from 12.5 million in December 2010
- Retail sales are up 8.7 percent compared to December 2010 and up 26.0 percent from November 2011
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 19 percent of total industry sales in December 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,563 in December 2011, which represents a decrease of 2.6 percent from November 2011 and down 3.0 percent from December 2010
- Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,854,666, up 1.7 percent from December 2010 and up 10.4 percent from November 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:3 for December 2011
"December's sales rate was a continuation of the rather slow and steady recovery that now symbolizes 2011," said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for the site. "This year was absent of a blockbuster sales month but we see this pace of growth as healthy and sustainable in the coming year where the industry is going to sell nearly fourteen million units based on the merits of its products and improved economy."
"This year new car sales are up year-over-year for every major automaker except Honda and Toyota with Hyundai/Kia sales expected to rise the most at almost twenty-eight percent," said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst for the site. "Automakers have demonstrated discipline during year end sales events with every major automaker decreasing incentives except Nissan."
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). The site does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships, and private party sales.
   
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