NEW – Federal: Minority government will require relationship building with all parties to advance advocacy efforts
The following is an analysis of the federal election results provided by Temple Scott Associates.
The Top Line
Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party won the most seats in yesterday’s federal election and will now form a second consecutive minority government.
The Liberals chose to dissolve the previous minority parliament and go to the polls early under the assumption strong public approval numbers that the Party enjoyed during most of the COVID-19 pandemic would translate into a majority.
Instead, voters returned the Liberals to power in a Parliament that looks virtually identical to the previous one. As of the publication of this note, the following are the Party standings in the House of Commons (based on candidates leading or elected):
- Liberals 158 (+1)
- Conservatives 119 (-2)
- Bloc Quebecois 34 (+2)
- NDP 25 (+1)
- Greens 2 (-1)
Impact on Advocacy
Another minority government will require continued focus on relationship building with both the government and opposition parties in order to advance advocacy efforts. That is especially true given that minorities rarely last the full four years – meaning that the government and opposition parties will once again not be focused on long-term issues. With the continued Bloc contingent in Parliament, consideration of how an issue impact or is viewed in Quebec will also need to be considered in all advocacy efforts in this Parliament. In addition, House Committees will continue to significantly impact legislation and policy direction for the Government given their opposition majority.
While the election was fought in the context of a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the coming Parliament is likely to focus less on COVID-19 issues given the high vaccination rate in Canada and the widely perceived need to wind down some COVID-related spending.