Import volume at the top U.S. containerized retail cargo handling ports is expected to increase 3.3 percent in May compared to May 2012, but growth could dwindle to a standstill by the end of the summer, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released May 14 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"The weak cargo increases expected over the next few months are consistent with other signs that the economy is slowly improving but show that retailers remain cautious, especially when it comes to stocking their inventories," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "We’re looking at barely 1.0 percent of year-over-year growth through the early summer, and August and September are expected to be basically flat even though they’re supposed to be two of the busiest months of the year."

Global Port Tracker’s conclusions are based on a survey and analysis of inbound container traffic flows at the ports of Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Oakland, Port Everglades, Savannah, Seattle and Tacoma.

The NRF cautions that import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them. However, it believes the imported merchandise quantities imported provide a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.14 million TEUs in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 10.9 percent from the previous month and 8.6 percent from March 2012. April was estimated at 1.29 million TEUs, down 1.4 percent from a year ago. 

Future month forecasts: May – 1.42 million TEUs (+3.3 percent); June – 1.4 million TEUs (+1.4 percent); July – 1.43 million TEUs (+1.4 percent); August – 1.43 million TEUs (+0.1 percent); September – 1.41 million TEUs (unchanged).  

"Despite the Fed pumping liquidity into the market, consumer confidence still has not turned the corner," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. "We need to see the economy strengthen in the coming quarters before we can begin to see the threat of a further economic downturn dissipating. Trade will remain at low growth levels until we reach this stage."