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Cargo Trends: Global Port Tracker

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Global Port Tracker: Retail Imports Remain Above Average as Port Talks Continue

Retailers concerned by the lack of a West Coast longshoremen’s contract will continue to bring merchandise into the country at above-average levels this month but volume will drop from the record set in August, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released September 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

Global Port Tracker’s conclusions are based on its survey and analysis of inbound container traffic flows at the ports of Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Oakland, Port Everglades, Savannah, Seattle and Tacoma.

"The negotiations have made progress and retailers have been stocking up, but there’s still cargo that needs to arrive before the holiday season kicks off," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. "Retailers are making sure that consumer demand during the holidays will be met."

Import volume at U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report is expected to total 1.47 million TEUs this month, down from the all-time monthly record of 1.53 million set in August as retailers imported merchandise early in case of any disruption on the docks. September has averaged 1.42 million TEUs during the past five years, according to the publication.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.5 million TEUs in July, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 1.1 percent from preceding month and 3.7 percent from July 2013.

Subsequent month forecasts: October – 1.51 million TEUs (+5.5 percent); November – 1.39 million TEUs (+3.8 percent); December – 1.37 million TEUs (+4.1 percent); January 2015 – 1.43 million TEUs (+3.8 percent).

The report forecasts a calendar year 2014 total of 17.1 million TEU, up from 16.2 million in 2013 and 15.8 million in 2012.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said cargo levels have bounded from the lows seen during the 2009 recession, but the recovery has not been as steady as those after previous recessions.

"The North American economy is certainly growing, but at lower rates than one would expect coming out of a deep recession," Mr. Hackett said. "It remains hesitant, growing in spurts rather than in a sustained pattern."
 

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