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Trade: Global Port Tracker

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Despite concern about the federal government shutdown, import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to grow 9.1 percent in October over the same month last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released October 7 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.  

Global Port Tracker: Imports Growing Despite Concerns Over Government Shutdown

Despite concern about the federal government shutdown, import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to grow 9.1 percent in October over the same month last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released October 7 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. The numbers reflect merchandise ordered months before the shutdown, as retailers planned for the holiday season.

Global Port Tracker’s conclusions are based on a survey and analysis of inbound container traffic flows at the ports of Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Oakland, Port Everglades, Savannah, Seattle and Tacoma.

"With the holidays nearly here, retailers are making sure their shelves are well-stocked," said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. "Cargo is continuing to move through the ports, but the government shutdown has left some agencies short-handed, so NRF will monitor the situation closely as the holidays approach."

The forecast comes as NRF is predicting that this year’s holiday sales will grow 3.9 percent from 2012’s $602.1 billion. It cautions, however, that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with sales because they count only the number of cargo containers, not the value of their cargo.

August, September and October are the months when most of the holiday season’s merchandise arrives in the country. The 4.42 million cargo containers Global Port Tracker is forecasting for those months combined would amount to a 5.9 percent year-over-year increase and account for 25.6 percent of retail imports for the entire year.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.48 million TEUs in August, the latest month for which finalized data are available. That was a 2.5 percent increase from the previous month and up 3.8 percent compared to August 2012.

Subsequent month forecasts:  September – 1.47 million TEUs (+4.9 percent); October – 1.46 million TEUs (+9.1 percent); November – 1.33 million TEUs (+3.4 percent); December – 1.31 million TEUs (+1.8 percent); January 2014 – 1.35 million TEUs (+2.9 percent);  February – 1.18 million TEUs (-8.1 percent).

For full CY 2013, Global Port Tracker is forecasting 16.3 million TEUs, up 2.6 percent from 2012’s 15.8 million TEUs. 
 

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