Global Port Tracker: Strong Growth in Merchandise Imports to Resume This Fall

Import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports this month will be modestly higher than a year ago, but a slow summer should be followed by significant increases this fall as retailers head into the holiday season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released July 9 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"With the economy recovering slowly, retailers have been cautious with imports this summer, but it’s clear that they expect an upturn later in the year," said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "Import numbers have been close to flat since spring, but we expect to see stronger increases this fall."

Global Port Tracker’s conclusions are based on a survey and analysis of inbound container traffic flows at the ports of Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Oakland, Port Everglades, Savannah, Seattle and Tacoma.

These ports together handled 1.38 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 1.2 percent from the preceding month but just 0.6 percent higher than May 2012. The estimated June count is 1.37 million TEUs, down 0.7 percent from June 2012.

Subsequent month forecasts: July – 1.43 million TEUs (+1.1 percent); August – 1.45 million TEUs (+1.7 percent); September – 1.44 million TEUs (+2.4 percent); October – 1.46 million TEUs (+9.1 percent); November – 1.38 million TEUs (+7.3 percent).

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett cautions that actual results hinge on consumer confidence. "Consumer sales remain relatively weak compared with GDP," he said. "If consumers do not turn their confidence into purchases, then import volumes will drop."

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