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Global Port Tracker: Retail Imports to Increase 8.5% in February

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With a tentative contract deal reached with East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers but a key West Coast agreement unsettled, import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports should increase 8.5 percent in February over the same month last year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released February 8 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. 

Global Port Tracker’s conclusions are based on a survey and analysis of inbound container traffic flows at the ports of Charleston, Hampton Roads, Houston, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Oakland, Port Everglades, Savannah, Seattle and Tacoma.  

“We were very happy to see a deal on a tentative contract for the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, but we are urging the parties to quickly work out any outstanding issues and ratify the agreement as soon as possible,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “We need a long-term labor contract in place to give retailers and the other industries that depend on the ports' confidence that cargo will continue flowing. We were disappointed that the LA/Long Beach clerical workers’ contract wasn’t ratified, but are encouraging the parties to work through their differences without a disruption.”

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.32 million TEUs in December, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That equates to increases of 2.8 percent from the preceding month and 8 percent from December 2011. The numbers for December brought the CY 2012 total to 15.8 million TEUs, up 2.9 percent from 2011.

January is estimated at 1.34 million TEUs, up 4.6 percent from January 2012. Subsequent month forecasts: February – 1.18 million TEUs (+8.5 percent); March – 1.29 million TEUs (+3.6 percent); April – 1.36 million TEUs (+4.4 percent); May – 1.45 million TEUs (+6.2 percent); and, June – 1.45 million TEUs (+4.9 percent).

Port Tracker projects 5.3 percent year-on-year growth for first half 2013 to 8.1 million TEUs.

“Short to medium-term economic indicators suggest that growth will be sustained but that there will be no breakout into a boom as consumers remain cautious,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “The fourth-quarter decrease in GDP should not be taken as a guide for projecting trade. More relevant was the data from the Department of Commerce that showed net disposable income was up.”
 

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