Trade Watch: U.S. and Canada

As negotiations with the U.S. continue ahead of the August 1 deadline, Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged that any trade deal with President Trump will likely include some level of tariffs—but has also insisted Canada will only accept an agreement that protects national interests. While Canadian premiers were united in condemning Trump’s latest threats, divisions exist on response — particularly on retaliation and infrastructure priorities. Ontario Premier Doug Ford pushed for a forceful reply, citing impacts to auto and steel sectors, while others, like Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, warned of unintended harm to Canadian producers. Simultaneously, a delegation of U.S. Democratic senators — including Ron Wyden, Lisa Murkowski, Maggie Hassan, and Catherine Cortez Masto — visited Ottawa in a rare show of cross-border outreach, aiming to de-escalate tensions and explore common ground on trade irritants like lumber and digital services taxes.

For public port authorities and supply chain operators, Carney’s infrastructure and permitting agenda is a welcome window of opportunity since his government passed legislation to fast-track approvals for nationally significant projects—such as ports, terminals, pipelines, and rail expansions — to help offset trade disruptions and reposition Canada’s economy away from overdependence on the U.S. Industry leaders in Canada appreciate these ambitions, seeing potential to unlock long-delayed capacity projects and modernize regulatory processes. However, challenges remain: legal action from Indigenous groups, pushback from environmental advocates, and a lack of private-sector investment continue to complicate momentum, particularly around oil pipelines. Still, with negotiations ongoing and diversification efforts accelerating, Canadian supply chain stakeholders are watching closely — and preparing to adapt in a rapidly shifting trade environment.

Sources: New York Times; Bloomberg, Journal of Commerce