Trade Currents Navigator: Spring Forward

 
The March 2024 edition of Trade Currents Navigator presents containerized trade trends and forecasts through the first quarter of 2025 based on the January 2024 trade information released by the U.S Census Bureau in early March. The report highlights activities affecting ports’ trade volumes, including:
 
Red Sea Crisis
The Red Sea/Suez Canal crisis is a developing risk to U.S. containerized trade. U.S. containerized trade with Middle East countries (excluding those on the Mediterranean Sea) and with South Asian countries has the highest risk of disruption due to this evolving crisis.
 
The Red Sea crisis has begun to have a negative impact on U.S. containerized trade volumes and shipping costs. In January 2024, containerized imports from the Middle East and South Asia declined 16% year-over-year, much steeper than the drop in total U.S. containerized imports. Month-over-month, containerized imports from the Middle East and South Asia fell 4% in January, while total U.S. containerized imports increased.
 
Containerized exports to the Middle East and South Asia fell 5% year-over-year in January 2024, while total U.S. containerized exports increased. Month-over-month, exports to the Middle East and South Asia dropped 12%, significantly more than total U.S. containerized exports.
 
It should be noted that the decreased monthly trade volumes just outlined may reflect delays in monthly volumes due to longer shipping distances, pushing volumes into succeeding months.
 
Containerized Imports
While containerized import volumes declined 1% year-over-year in January 2024, this one-month decline does not signal a return to persistent annual decreases. The January decline followed a year-over-year increase in December 2023, the first since October 2022. Overall import trends and the macroeconomic environment appear positive.
 
Positive import trend indicators in January 2024:
• The year-over-year import decline was largely due to relatively high volumes in January 2023.
• Month-over-month import volumes increased 7% in January 2024, 4% above the normal seasonal pattern.
• The gap below the long-term pre-COVID import trend, which stabilized at 7%-8% during the summer of 2023, narrowed to 2% in January 2024.
• Imports of several major commodities that contributed to declines in total containerized imports in 2023 are recovering. Imports of furniture, plastics, and iron or steel articles had double-digit year-over-year increases in January 2024. 
 
A robust 7% containerized import volume recovery is expected in 2024, with a 6% year-over-year rise during the peak season from July through October.
 
Containerized Exports
Containerized export volumes increased 2% year-over-year in January 2024, a third consecutive month of such increases. These were the first months with year-over-year increases since July 2021. While exports declined 6% from December 2023, this was due to normal seasonal patterns.
 
Exports of several major commodities that dampened overall containerized exports in 2023 - kraft paper, forage, cotton, and wood in the rough – registered double-digit year-over-year increases in January 2024.
 
Containerized exports are projected to post a 2% increase in 2024. While moderate, this would be the first annual rise since 2018.
 
Trade Currents is a partner with AAPA in support of its Port Statistics Program to benefit ports, as well as the broader trade and logistics industry, research community, policymakers, and private institutions. Trade Currents partners include internationally recognized economists and trade analysts Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Andrei Roudoi and Scudder Smith. For questions about this article or AAPA’s work with Trade Currents, contact Shannon McLeod, AAPA Vice President of Member Services.