U.S. Containerboard Market Balanced

January box shipments growth of 2.1% y/y on a blended basis was slightly weaker than expected, according to Wilde. Inventories rose 163,000 tons m/m versus the average 10-yr increase of ˜100,000 tons. "However, we think January numbers were distorted by a combination of holiday timing and unusually severe weather across many parts of the U.S. January ISM data, which historically have been a good indicator of industry volumes, suggest corrugated boxes should continue to see gradual volume recovery. Meanwhile, export prices appear to be stabilizing around the high-$400/ton FAS range in key markets," Wilde reports.

"In Europe, producers appear "reasonably successful" in pushing through a EUR 50 - 60/metric ton price hike on recycled containerboard. At the moment, we'd characterize the domestic market as balanced. However, we expect that U.S. producers may still attempt to boost prices in May," Wilde adds.

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