December U.S. P&W Paper Shipments Down 7% from 2010, Flat from November
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Total U.S. printing and writing (P&W) paper shipments decreased 7% in December compared with December 2010, according to the AF&PA's December 2011 Printing-Writing Preliminary Shipments Report published this week. Three of the four major P&W grades posted decreases compared with last December.
Coated papers decreased by 6% compared with last December, and are down 3% from last month. Coated free sheet (CFS) papers posted the only year-over-year increase, up 2% compared with last December, but interestingly down 4% from last month [see CFS trend deep dive below]. Coated mechanical (CM) papers, meanwhile, followed last month's 7.3% year-over-year decrease with a 13.7% decrease. This is the driving force behind the decrease in total coated paper shipments. CM shipments were down just 2% compared with last month.
Uncoated papers were down 7% compared with last December, but up 2% compared with November 2011. Uncoated free sheet (UFS) shipments posted an increase compared with November, up 4%, but decreased compared with last December, down 6%. Given the relative sizes of UFS versus uncoated mechanical shipments, these data alone explain the trend in uncoated paper shipments. reliminary uncoated mechanical (UM) shipments are showing a year-over-year decline of 12% and an 8% decline compared with November.
Coated free sheet trend deep dive. For CFS, 2007 was a strong year. In fact, October 2007 was the highest single month shipments for CFS, reaching 471,400 tons shipped. November was also strong, hitting a peak for November at 400,200 tons. As the recession took hold in 2008, November shipments hit a low point not seen since November 2002, coming in at 304,800 tons. As the economy improved, so did CFS shipments, getting to 332,800 tons in November 2009 and 331,100 tons in November 2010. November 2011, however, experienced a setback, coming in at 325.800 tons.
The tale is slightly different with regard to December CFS shipments. The peak for December shipments of CFS hit in 2006, at 415,500 tons, followed by another good month in December 2007 at 407,400 tons. The recession took its toll in December 2008, with shipments dropping to 287,700 tons, the lowest December level in the past 16 years. Shipments returned to trend levels in 2009 at 316,300 tons, followed by a very minor drop in 2010 to 313,200 tons. It is from this relatively low point that December 2011 shipments are being compared against, and as a result, preliminary CFS shipment data suggest there will be a 1% - 2% increase year-over-year.
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