PCA Forecast Sees Continued Growth for U.S. Cement Industry

During the PCA Board of Directors meeting last week, PCA Chief Economist and Group Vice President Ed Sullivan reported that 2014 cement consumption in the U.S. continued to grow in line with expectations. PCA’s cement volume forecast remains essentially unchanged since the fall forecast of 2013. The United States’ cement market is expected to grow 8.2 percent in 2014, followed by similar rates of growth in 2015 and 2016. However, minor adjustments have been made regarding the construction sub sectors. Housing starts, for example, have been trimmed slightly compared to the summer forecast and more emphasis has been placed on multifamily starts. Reflecting the trends of the first half of 2014, cement intensities have been increased compared to the previous forecast. The oil price environment has changed significantly since the summer and these new impacts have been integrated into the forecast projections.

Going forward, Sullivan stated that the underlying economic fundamentals are strengthening and are reflected in the labor market. Sustained gains in monthly job creation in excess of 225,000 net new jobs monthly, in the context of sub-six percent unemployment translates into more consumer spending power, stronger state and local tax receipts, more favorable returns on investment for commercial building and stronger household formation – all leading to stronger construction spending in 2015.