What is Your Prediction?

By Jean-Yves Rioux, FCIA

In September 2015, the CIA formed a new committee to promote the role of actuaries in the field of predictive modelling. If you work in the predictive modelling arena, we would like to hear from you. We are looking for volunteers to make sure actuaries claim their role in this evolving field.

Predictive modelling is a set of tools and techniques used to describe, predict, and recommend business courses of action that take into account consumer, provider, and distributor behavior which draws on many disciplines: statistics, modelling, optimization, clustering, and market research. Predictive modelling applications are numerous and cover aspects that span sales and marketing, underwriting, inforce management, claims management, pricing/reserving, and experience analysis. For example, predictive modelling can be used to identify policyholders most likely to surrender their life insurance policy, or third-party information can be used to assess and underwrite auto insurance risks. The increased use of telematics in auto and life insurance has the potential to create large databases that may lend themselves to predictive modelling work.

The mission of the Predictive Modelling Committee is to promote the application of the actuarial skill set to predictive modelling and to market actuaries as skilled experts in this field. More specifically, the committee will do the following:

a) Promote the role of actuaries in the predictive modelling field both within and outside the profession;

b) Identify needs for new research in the field of predictive modelling that will draw attention to the work of actuaries;

c) Communicate existing research and case studies of work in the field through various media (presentations at meetings, webcasts, CIA website, etc.); and

d) Influence the education curriculum and Continuing Professional Development (CPD) offerings to include relevant predictive modelling techniques.

In order to achieve these goals, we will, in addition to organizing CPD sessions, communicate applications, key techniques, and tools to actuaries interested in the practice.

It is an exciting time to participate in the advancement of this practice. If you want to join us, please volunteer through the Volunteer Applicant Registry (you first need to open a session in the members' site to access this link) and, if you wish to know more, please contact me at jean-yves.rioux@deloitte.ca.

Jean-Yves Rioux, FCIA, is Chair of the Predictive Modelling Committee.

Canadian Institute of Actuaries/Institut canadien des actuaires